Start with what is known
Commercial decisions often mix customer facts, internal beliefs, market signals and personal preferences. Put them in separate columns before debating a route.
This does not remove judgement. It makes the basis of that judgement visible.
Limit the viable set
A long list of ideas can hide weak discipline. Keep no more than three viable options. Each must be possible within the actual time, money, access and capability available.
- Evidence that supports it
- Evidence that weakens it
- The cost of waiting
- What would change the recommendation
Choose with conditions
A useful recommendation can include conditions. Choose this route now, unless a named signal changes. That creates movement without pretending the future is fully known.